← Contrarian's Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Contrarian's Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.4%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1215
· median 1215
· range 1215–1215
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1088
Q1 1182
Q3 1405
1511
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 21.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Chess | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
